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Finding a fantasy football tight end is a lot more like finding a girlfriend than you think. You can only pick one. And if you are in a situation where you picked two, you will soon end up with zero.
Finding one can be hard enough as it is. The ratio of tight ends to running backs and wide receivers at the bar is about as ideal as at a heavy metal concert. Even if you do find one, two, or even three that catch your eye, don’t latch on right away. That will reek of desperation to everyone around you and could tank your fantasy team. You also can’t wait too long or those three dime piece tight ends will be going home with your dead beat friends who keep asking if they can pay their league fees in off-brand BitCoin.
You have to be strategic. You have to be analytical. You have to be cunning. Luckily for you – I’m your wing man. I have the cheat sheet. Imagine Rain Man in George Clooney’s body. I know the exact worth of all these tight ends standing around the bar pretending they’re having fun.
Let’s step into the Fantasy Draft Bar in 2019 and take a quick gander at who’s mingling inside. We’ll figure out which tight ends are worthy of a long-term commitment capable of going the distance until Christmas season pressures you to buy her gifts.
When to Hit On The Big Three (Kelce, Ertz, Kittle)
There’s three perfect tens in the bar and everyone is plotting their move. You’ll need to be patient. But move quickly. This is where my wins above replacement (WAR) analysis plays. This tells us how many fantasy wins a team earned in 2018 strictly due to starting a particular player over the course of the fantasy regular season.
There’s no time to get into the specifics. All you really need to know about WAR right now is how all the eligible tight end companions turned out in 2018. Using this information, WAR can guide us in deciding when the right time to swoop in is.
Below is a table showing what each of the slim-pickens tight ends ended up being worth drafting in 2018 (both round and pick):
2018 Optimal Tight End Draft Selection
| Round | Pick | Player | WAR | Ave_Week_Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | Travis Kelce | 1.39 | 12.1 |
| 2 | 5 | George Kittle | 1.09 | 10.67 |
| 2 | 6 | Zach Ertz | 1 | 10.27 |
| 2 | 10 | Eric Ebron | 0.93 | 9.89 |
| 2 | 12 | O.J. Howard | 0.89 | 9.61 |
| 5 | 1 | Jared Cook | 0.48 | 7.85 |
| 5 | 10 | Evan Engram | 0.39 | 7.39 |
| 5 | 12 | Rob Gronkowski | 0.34 | 7.18 |
| 6 | 3 | Garrett Celek | 0.31 | 7 |
| 6 | 6 | Will Dissly | 0.29 | 6.9 |
| 8 | 1 | Trey Burton | 0.15 | 6.34 |
| 8 | 10 | Austin Hooper | 0.11 | 6.13 |
| 8 | 12 | Jack Doyle | 0.1 | 6.08 |
| 9 | 1 | Ryan Hewitt | 0.1 | 6.1 |
| 9 | 9 | Tyler Eifert | 0.07 | 5.98 |
| 9 | 12 | Greg Olsen | 0.06 | 5.9 |
| 10 | 6 | David Njoku | 0.05 | 5.86 |
| 11 | 7 | Chris Manhertz | 0 | 5.6 |
| 11 | 8 | Jordan Reed | 0 | 5.65 |
| 11 | 9 | Vance McDonald | 0 | 5.67 |
| 11 | 12 | Michael Roberts | -0.01 | 5.6 |
| 12 | 7 | Kyle Rudolph | -0.06 | 5.46 |
| 12 | 8 | Chris Herndon IV | -0.08 | 5.3 |
| 13 | 5 | Delanie Walker | -0.11 | 5.2 |
| 13 | 8 | Blake Jarwin | -0.13 | 5.41 |
| 13 | 11 | Jeremy Sprinkle | -0.14 | 5.05 |
| 14 | 3 | Demetrius Harris | -0.16 | 4.91 |
| 14 | 4 | Jonnu Smith | -0.17 | 4.87 |
| 14 | 6 | Mark Andrews | -0.18 | 4.88 |
| 14 | 8 | Dallas Goedert | -0.19 | 4.78 |
| 14 | 11 | Jimmy Graham | -0.21 | 4.73 |
| 15 | 1 | Cameron Brate | -0.23 | 4.64 |
| 15 | 2 | Vernon Davis | -0.23 | 4.61 |
| 15 | 8 | Ian Thomas | -0.25 | 4.53 |
| 16 | 1 | Erik Swoope | -0.27 | 4.45 |
| 16 | 11 | Mo Alie-Cox | -0.32 | 4.22 |
| 17 | 3 | Ed Dickson | -0.33 | 4.15 |
| 17 | 4 | Lee Smith | -0.33 | 4.22 |
| 17 | 10 | C.J. Uzomah | -0.34 | 4.13 |
| 17 | 11 | Jesse James | -0.34 | 4.18 |
| 17 | 12 | Jordan Thomas | -0.34 | 4.14 |
| 18 | 5 | Benjamin Watson | -0.37 | 4 |
| 18 | 6 | Jeff Heuerman | -0.37 | 4.01 |
| 19 | 6 | Gerald Everett | -0.41 | 3.83 |
| 19 | 7 | Antonio Gates | -0.42 | 3.79 |
| 19 | 8 | Geoff Swaim | -0.42 | 3.78 |
| 19 | 9 | Austin Seferian-Jenkins | -0.43 | 3.75 |
| 19 | 10 | Darren Fells | -0.43 | 3.71 |
| 20 | 4 | Nick O'Leary | -0.44 | 3.65 |
| 20 | 7 | A.J. Derby | -0.46 | 3.6 |
| 21 | 2 | Anthony Firkser | -0.47 | 3.56 |
| 21 | 5 | Robert Tonyan | -0.49 | 3.43 |
| 21 | 6 | Tyler Higbee | -0.5 | 3.43 |
| 21 | 10 | Joshua Perkins | -0.52 | 3.35 |
| 21 | 12 | Levine Toilolo | -0.54 | 3.23 |
| 22 | 3 | Adam Shaheen | -0.55 | 3.2 |
| 22 | 4 | Nick Vannett | -0.55 | 3.21 |
| 22 | 5 | Rhett Ellison | -0.55 | 3.2 |
| 23 | 9 | Scott Simonson | -0.61 | 2.92 |
| 24 | 1 | Ricky Seals-Jones | -0.62 | 2.88 |
| 24 | 3 | Luke Stocker | -0.63 | 2.85 |
| 24 | 5 | Hayden Hurst | -0.64 | 2.79 |
| 24 | 6 | Jake Butt | -0.64 | 2.83 |
| 24 | 7 | Matt LaCosse | -0.64 | 2.82 |
| 24 | 10 | Ryan Griffin | -0.65 | 2.77 |
| 25 | 1 | Josh Hill | -0.66 | 2.72 |
| 25 | 2 | Virgil Green | -0.66 | 2.7 |
| 25 | 7 | Jacob Hollister | -0.69 | 2.6 |
| 25 | 8 | Matt Lengel | -0.69 | 2.57 |
| 25 | 12 | Jason Croom | -0.72 | 2.45 |
No surprise that Kelce leads the clique here. He ended up being the number 10 overall fantasy football player of 2018, according to WAR. This doesn’t by itself mean he’s worth that again this year, but given the fact that he’s returning to a stable, potent offense, I’m going to give this draft spot for 2019 a stamp of approval. Besides, this is the exact expert consensus ranking for Kelce on FantasyPros, giving these experts some validation that they know what they’re talking about.
If you’re ready to make your move on Kelce, let’s first double-check how much more he’s worth than the other tight ends:
As you can see, selecting Kelce’s WAR gives your team exactly an entire win per 13-game fantasy season (1.39) more than a safe– not so sexy – but hey, at least has personal goals: Even Engram (.39).
If you want to end this headache early and walk over to Kelce at #10, I can’t hate on that. But his ADP strangely sits at #17 so if you’re willing to roll the dice, snake drafters with the tenth pick might have a chance at him at the 2.3 spot. Your call. Anywhere early in the second round is the time to buy that drink.
Still standing around, huh? So you too like to live dangerously.
If someone else jumps the gun on Kelce, don’t fret. There’s two other dimes you can focus on. George Kittle and Zach Ertz. Both of these guys are coming into 2019 with better QB situations than 2018.
If Ertz is your type, you have good reason. If you think you’re ogling over him too much you should see the way Carson Wentz stares him down every play. Kinda makes you wonder. ADP has Ertz at #29 (3.5) If none of the RB’s or WR’s catch your eye in the back of the second round, don’t be afraid to snag Ertz. He was worth the 2.6 pick last year, offering your team a complete win over the replacement-level, last ditch, lights on at the bar pitty call, Austin Hooper.
Missing out on Ertz is trouble because now all eyes at the bar are set on a man named George and missing out on him at this point is a recipe for multiple upcoming week-to-week broken relationships. You might look back at the graph and think Eric Ebron is a good “get her number just in case you need it” type of tight end. He may have been pretty magical last year, but his Botox is about to wear out. Regression to his insane 2018 TD rate is imminent and Luck has many more receiving options this year.
OK, so missed out on the three perfect tens. Whatever, there’s more to life than straight looks or points, there’s personality. By that I mean value. You can still get a down to earth OJ Howard and give your team close to a full win above replacement. His ADP sits at 57 (4.9) and he was worth the 2.12 pick last year. This might be the best bang for your buck in this whole mess – assuming Jameis Winston can keep his shit together for an entire year. That might be quite the leap.
Don’t let all the pretty tier-two wide receivers and running backs make you think this is too early for tight ends. The difference makers at tight end might not be as glamorous, but you’ll regret it when the pick-me-overs you’ll be stuck with later on are asking you if you know how to clean a trach.
Your only option to avoid this now is to roll the dice on prospective up and comers like Vance McDonald and Hunter Henry. These are the girls who party hard first before showing up to the bar. While desperate team owners are frantically scanning the dance floor, direct your gaze towards the front door. The WAR analysis can’t help you decide when they’ll get snatched up either so you’re on your own here. You dug this hole; now get yourself out.
Oh, you’re still here?
Welp: you’re basically screwed. Maybe Even Engram or Jared Cook keep your team afloat but don’t be surprised if you’re running back to the bar every week after summer’s over desperately searching for someone that will do for a week because you couldn’t commit to a thoroughbred.
Don’t be that guy. Pony up this year. Aside from Kelce, the next few top-tier tight ends are undervalued and if you make your move at the perfect moment – not too early, not too late – that extra win vs. Replacement is very likely going to be the difference between making the playoffs and locking down that #1 consolation bracket standing.
Don’t be the team at the draft bar without a tight end when the lights come on. But if you are: you’ll need this.
Wondering what the WAR results for other positions are?
-El Jefe
