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Paul Charcian is the super trendy hipster fantasy analyst who coined the “do the opposite” strategy back in the 90s before it was even cool. He loves this strategy so much it’s posted in his Twitter banner for over 67k hipster followers to all do because they’re all so different. Unlike the man romper – a hipster fad shorter lasting than the Nate Peterman era – this idea has lingered in the IPA scented underground of fantasy culture for decades.
What is “do the opposite”?
Basically, this means don’t draft running backs with your first few picks no matter what. While everyone else zigs, you zag. Avoid the high risk that comes with early round RBs and take top-tier WRs or TEs who are much less likely to get injured. Unlike man rompers, this theory at least has logic to it. Many of the top scoring RBs end up coming from the middle rounds so why not make sure your first and second round picks aren’t duds and shotgun approach RBs in the middle to late rounds of the draft?
This all seems to make sense. But let’s not look over the fact that this strategy was literally named after one of the most legendary of losers in the history of losers: Seinfeld’s George Costanza. After realizing 40 years of doing what he thought was right led him to become a life-long loser, Costanza did the opposite of everything his instincts told him:
If you equate the quality of your fantasy drafting skills to that of George Castanza attempting to do life, then yes, this is the risk management strategy for you. You need all the bumpers the lanes of life can offer. But while you won’t look too bad when ten frames have passed, you also won’t be getting many strikes with bumpers crowding the edges.
That’s the rub do the opposite truthers are too tunnel-vision to see. It hinders success just as much as it mitigates disaster. It’s like bringing a Honda with traction control to a street race. Sure, you won’t skid off the edge of a switchback, but while you’re thankful for not being one of the guys that do, the other guys are way ahead competing for first. Fantasy football isn’t about not losing; it’s about winning. It’s about taking those corners fast and thriving through the finish line without any hipster traction control.
The fantasy football hipsters have their data. I have data of my own.
While folks like Charch focus on avoiding the landmines, they gloss right over the buried treasure. Of all fantasy players to propel at least 30 percent of fantasy teams to the playoffs in 2018, only three of them were first rounders. Gurley, Kamara, and Barkley. All Rbs. Not a “safe” wide receiver to be seen. Let’s look at round 2 where only two players made the list. One of those two was an RB. The other was also an RB. The first “safe” WR to make at least 30 percent of fantasy playoff teams didn’t come until Adam Thielen and Tyreek Hill were selected with third round ADPs of 32.3 and 32.9. A similar trend occurred in 2017 and 2016.
You know who takes WRs in the third round? People who used their first two rounds on RBs. Not a great look for the hipsters. This whole idea of playing it safe is pretty cool when it comes to retirement investing, but if you were investing in a hedge fund that only paid out if it made more money than 11 other hedge funds, you’d be pretty pissed when you learn they bought a majority share of Applebees.
My groundbreaking Wins Above Replacement research further shows the power of the game changing RB. Seven out of the top-ten performing fantasy players in 2018 were highly touted RBs giving fantasy teams at least 1.5 wins above replacement in a 13-week regular season. This was no anomaly either as there were also seven top-ten RBs in 2017 and six in 2016.
To further prove the prowess of the RB, I took the top-50 performances for each position of the last three years and graphed how prevalent fantasy team owners’ match-up win percentages were based solely on that performance.
Even of the top-50 kicker performances in 2018, its effect gave most fantasy team owners less than 70 percent chance of winning a match-up. It was an unimpressive year in this regard for kickers, as opposed to the other two years (2016, 2017) in which they were remarkably just as unimpressive.
This is why kickers are the afterthought of fantasy football. But as you move to the right on these graphs, position impact on fantasy team wins continually increases. In all three years, it’s RB that give teams the most impact. Are there risks associated? Of course. What do you think this is? If you want to be able to gain something without any direct risk yourself, join a Wall Street firm. In fantasy football, you have to take a stand and be the master of your domain.
Do the opposite is circular logic at its finest. Wouldn’t the only way to truly do the opposite be to not do the opposite? Are the real hipsters in life really all mainstream? Do the opposite is a fool’s errand loser draft style. When your team finishes 6-7 and you wonder whether doing the opposite was the smart move, your feeble Costanza mind will be looking for every excuse in the book to explain for your team’s shrinkage.
Whatever that excuse is:
– El Jefe
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