You’re going to think I’m crazy, but hear me out.
The sentence above is not the way a rational person begins making a case for, well… anything. In the history of lawyers, exactly zero of them have started their opening or closing remarks with “your honor, members of the jury, you’re going to think I’m crazy, but hear me out”. Not a one. Well, I’m not a lawyer. But I came across something that at first seemed like a bizarre coincidence. But as I dug deeper, I began to unearth a buried truth the world needs to know:
*Looks left. Looks right*: NFL kickers have been using global warming as an artificial performance enhancement since the 1970s.
Yep. It’s conspiracy time.
From 1970 to 2018, NFL average field goal percentages highly correlate (r = .889) to global changes in temperature from the 1951 – 1980 average (as observed by NASA). Let’s see what this comparison looks like graphed out:
It’s definitely not a perfect correlation, but in the real world, it never is. In general, you’ll notice the warming increases are outpacing kicking averages, but if you look at the spikes and valleys for each, you’ll notice that they align a lot more than they don’t. As global temperatures increase from the NASA baseline, kicking percentage will begin to increase either with or soon thereafter at a muted or softened rate compared to increases in warming.
This is a little more apparent when we break the above chart down into chunks. Below is the same line graph above, only smoothed and focused on 1970 to 1989. I smoothed it to reveal the general trend each took without the up and down, year to year variance of each individual measure.
You can clearly see things were pretty consistent for both kicking averages and global warming until around 1975 when warming took off. You’ll notice the slightly delayed and muted effect this had on NFL field goal kicking averages around three years later in 1978.
This could all entirely be a coincidence…
But a similar occurrence also transpired in the 1990’s to a more subtle degree as shown below. While the waves in global warming are much more pronounced, you can see a matching pattern of ebbs and flows of kicking accuracy. Both fell from 1900 – 1992 before rising from 1992 – 1995, taking a short dip (global warming from 1995 – 1996 & kicking accuracy from 1996 – 1997), and effectively ending the decade where each stood in 1995:
Finally, 2000 to around 2019:
By the 2000’s, field goal kicking accuracy benefited so much from global warming that there was little much else left to gain. This might seem like a cop out, but it makes total sense. Logarithmic gains in kicking accuracy have basically maxed out. To expect them to continue towards 100 percent is not realistic. It would be like expecting 1998 Mark McGuire to get the same benefits from steroids as a 1986 Barry Bonds (question for my lawyers: do we still have to say allegedly?). So by the 2000’s, kicking accuracy was more responsive to decreases in warming than increases. The 2000 – 2001 dip can easily be explained by the warming dip between 1998 – 2000, and the 2008 kicking dip came predictably a year after a warming dip from 2007 – 2008. While there doesn’t seem to be a matching kicking accuracy dip in response to the warming dip of 2010 – 2011, warming was still on a massive upward trajectory from 2008 – 2016.
While the above graph isn’t zoomed in enough to reveal the ever so slight increase in kicking accuracy that followed this warming from 2008 – 2016, the hockey stick graph below is. It shows a noticeable increase in kicking average from 2014 – 2018 followed by a massive crash in 2019:
Hockey Stick Graph:
Given what we know about the delayed but correlated change in field goal percentage in response to global warming, the drop in 2019 shouldn’t be that surprising. Think back to our steroid example. Sure, when warming goes up, we will only see a slight increase in field goal kicking average in response because we’ve likely reached the ceiling of any logarithmic field goal accuracy gains. But while big trees grow slow, they fall hard. The warming drop from 2016 – 2019 caught up to NFL field goal kickers and their accuracy percentages fell harder than Bob Kraft on a massage table.
But this crash has not gone unnoticed as outlets like FiveThirtyEight were befuddled by this down year in field goal accuracy. But as you know now, the evidence was out there for all to see. I can only imagine the look of embarrassment on Nate Silver and company’s face after realizing the answer to this riddle was right in their wheelhouse with a clear and incapable of ridicule connection to climate change.
If you still think this is crazy let me remind you it’s well established physics that warm air allows NFL kickers to kick farther. As a matter of fact, renowned ESPN analyst guru Brian Burke has studied that very thing and concluded warmer air increases field goal rates.
Still not convinced?
I hear you. We need corroborating evidence that this wasn’t all just some coincidence. What about increased performance in other sports involving balls flying through the air? While the correlation to global warming patterns and field goal kicking since 1970 is extremely large (r = .889), the correlation between global warming and average PGA Tour driving distance since 1980 was even larger (r = .899).
Let’s see, what else do humans propel through the air for sport? How about shot-put? If you take the individual years since 1970 in which a men’s shot put record was broken (1973,1976,1978,1983,1985,1986,1987,1988,1990) and match those years with corresponding global warming figures, the correlation is still pretty darn good (r = .81).
Listen, I’m not saying anyone who’s an NFL kicker, golfer or shot-putter is in cahoots with big energy and/or the Koch family for sole purpose of being able to put a ball through the air farther. But I’m not saying they aren’t either. What I will say is that the Baltimore Ravens employ Sam Koch, a kicker of the punting variety, and Gary Koch is a professional PGA golfer. These are just 100 percent facts. An inconvenient truth if you will.
Now, I’m not one to get too wrapped up in a conspiracy theory. But I feel bad for kickers of old. Like our grandparents back in the old days, these kickers had to kick uphill on both sides of the field in the cold snow with 40 mph winds against them both ways. And let me tell you, it showed. Take a look at this histogram showing the amount of NFL teams since 1970 that ended their season kicking field goals under 50 percent:
You’ll notice the effect the global warming decline since 2016 has had on the 2019 Titans. For the first time since 1987, a team has averaged less than 50% of their field goals in a single year.
I mentioned right off the bat in this article: “you are going to think I’m crazy, but here me out”. Now that you’ve heard me out, I trust you have come to realize just how accurate I was. Big credit to me on that. But what do we do about all of this? Do we put forth a carbon tax on kickers for using global warming as a performance enhancer? Do we all go out and buy Hummers and make circles around our favorite NFL team’s stadium? Do we force a team to sign Cody Parkey in efforts to save the planet? I don’t have the answer to these questions. That’s not my job. My job is to present the facts for what they are. It’s societies job to decide what to do from here.
I rest my case.
-El Jefe
